Which direction is positive?

Expected minus actual, so a positive figure means the team is ranked lower than their performances merit. This is the opposite convention to the player deltas, where positive means running hot.

Why is the column sortable?

Because the extremes at both ends are the interesting cases. Sorting by it puts the most underrated and the most flattered teams at opposite ends of the same column.

How is expected position itself calculated?

The league is re-sorted by expected points instead of actual points, and each team's rank in that order is its expected position. See expected position for the full method.

Is a Δ# of two or three places significant?

In a tightly packed mid-table, yes, because two or three places can separate several teams on very similar points. Near the top or bottom of the table, where gaps between positions are wider, the same Δ# means less.

Does Δ# say a team will finish at their expected position?

No. It flags pressure in one direction, not a forecast of the final table. Fixtures, injuries and squad changes between now and the end of the season all sit outside what this number measures.

Can two teams have the same Δ# for different reasons?

Yes. One team's gap can come from a run of unlucky one-goal defeats, another's from converting a similar level of performance into fewer results because their good performances came in matches already lost. The number is the same. The story behind it is not.

Position versus Expected

Δ#

Position versus expected is how many places a team's real league position sits away from its expected position.

Why it matters. A positive figure means the table currently ranks a team below what their performances deserve, which makes it the fastest way to find the league's mispriced sides.

Figures from xG Stat’s own models, built on Wyscout event data. Updated 6 August 2026.

What the gap is measuring

Position versus expected compares a team's expected position against its real league position and states the difference in places. Expected minus actual, so a positive figure means a team sits lower in the real table than its performances earn. A negative figure means a team sits higher than its performances earn.

Where expected position names a destination, Δ# measures the distance to it. A team can have an unremarkable expected position, say ninth, and still carry a large Δ# if their real position is a long way from ninth in either direction.

Sort it, do not just read it

Finding the mispriced teams in one pass. Sort the whole table by Δ#. The two ends of the sorted list answer two different questions in one move. One end shows the table's biggest bargains, teams ranked well below what they deserve. The other shows sides riding a run their underlying play does not support. No other column on the expected table answers both at once.

A promoted side outperforming its expected position early. A newly promoted team wins its opening handful of matches while creating the chances of a side fighting relegation. Their real position sits comfortably in the top half. Their expected position, built from that modest chance quality, sits much lower. Δ# runs strongly negative here. The table currently rates them well above what the underlying numbers support, and that gap is one of the least sustainable patterns the column can show.

A big club stuck below its expected position during a rough patch. A side with a strong squad goes through a run of draws and narrow defeats while still creating and restricting chances at a level well above most of the league. Their real position drops into the bottom half. Their expected position stays close to where their squad quality would predict. Δ# runs strongly positive, flagging exactly the kind of gap that a run of the ball finally turning tends to close.

Built for sorting, not for a single glance

Reading Δ# for one team in isolation tells you whether that side is overrated or underrated right now. The column earns its place by being sorted, because the size of the gap only means something in relation to every other team's gap. A Δ# of four places is unremarkable in a division where several teams show something similar, and striking in one where most sit close to zero.

Where the read goes wrong

Treating it as a finishing prediction. A large Δ# says a team is currently mispriced, not where they will actually finish in May. Fixture difficulty, injuries to key players and squad changes over the run-in all sit outside what this number captures.

Confusing it with expected position. Δ# is the size of the gap in places. Expected position is the destination itself. A team can have a large Δ# while sitting in a modest expected position, or a small Δ# despite an ambitious one. Check both before drawing a conclusion from either alone.

Ranked furthest below their performances

2025/26 final

See the full expected tableData to Mon 25 May, 15:00

FAQ

Related terms

See Δ# across the Premier League

Every player, team and match measured on the chances created rather than the scoreline.