Why does an assist on xG Stat not match my FPL points?

Three different things get called an assist. FPL's fantasy assist follows its own bonus rules and credits deflected passes, rebounds and penalties won. The official match stats use a narrower definition. Event-data assists follow a third, stricter definition again. The FPL facts xG Stat displays, points, prices and fantasy assists, come from FPL itself and always match your points. Assist counts inside the analytics tables come from event data and can differ by design.

Why does your xG differ from the official Premier League number?

Every provider logs its own events and trains its own model, so no two sites agree to the decimal, including sites that both use the official feed at different model versions. A gap of a few hundredths on one shot, or a few tenths across a match, is the normal distance between two honest, independently built models.

Can I still trust the numbers for FPL decisions?

Yes. The decisions FPL rewards, spotting sustained overperformance, fixture swings and role changes, rest on season-level trends, and independent sources agree on direction almost every time. The number that differs between sites is the third decimal, not the conclusion.

Do you use the same data as FPL?

No, and that is deliberate. FPL and the Premier League use the league's official data supplier. xG Stat licenses independent professional event data with full event-level depth, every pass, carry, duel and shot, which is what powers ratings, xT and the projections.

Why Our Numbers Differ From FPL

Data sources

xG Stat shows two kinds of numbers: FPL facts, which come from FPL itself and always match the official game, and analytics built on independent professional event data, which can differ slightly from other sites while agreeing on season-level trends.

Why it matters. A single-match gap between one site's xG and another's is expected behaviour of independent data sources, not an error. Knowing which numbers are official facts and which are independent analytics stops a small decimal difference from shaking your trust in the trend.

Figures from xG Stat’s own models, built on Wyscout event data. Updated 14 August 2026.

Some numbers on xG Stat will not match FPL or another stats site to the decimal. That is not a bug. What follows is exactly what will match, what will not, and why the difference does not change your decisions.

The short version

FPL facts always match. Points, prices, ownership and fantasy assists come from FPL itself, so they are identical to the official game by construction.
Analytics are independent. xG, xA, xT, ratings and projections are built on professional event data collected independently of the Premier League's official supplier. They can differ slightly from other sites.
Single matches differ, seasons agree. Two providers can disagree about one shot. Over a season the trends, who is overperforming and whose fixtures are turning, point the same way.

Why numbers differ at all

Event data is created by trained analysts logging every touch of a match: every pass, shot, duel and carry. Providers make different judgement calls on the marginal events. Was that effort blocked or off target? Did the cross deflect enough to break the assist?

Each provider answers consistently within its own data, so neither number is wrong. They are independent measurements of the same match. This holds between any two providers, not just between xG Stat and the official feed.

The assist confusion, specifically

Three different definitions share one word:

FPL's fantasy assist follows FPL's bonus rules: deflected passes, rebounds off the keeper and winning a penalty can all count.
The official stats assist is narrower, and is what appears in the league's published match stats.
Event-data assists follow a third definition again, and are what the analytics tables here count.

If you are checking your FPL points, read the FPL facts on the page: they come from FPL and match the game exactly. If an assist "did not count", the gap is almost always between these definitions, not a missing event.

Why xG Stat licenses independent data

The event data behind this site is licensed from a professional provider of the kind used inside top clubs. It was chosen for event-level depth: every pass, carry, duel and shot in every match, which is what makes ratings, expected threat and the projections possible at all. Matching another site's decimals was never the goal. Measuring the game deeply and consistently is.

What to trust for what

Picking your FPL team. Season trends, projections and form are robust. Independent sources agree on direction, and consistency within one source is what comparisons need.

Settling an argument about one match's xG. No site will match another exactly, on any provider. Quote the site you read and accept that the decimals differ.

For the deeper version, on how the models themselves diverge, read how xG models differ.

FAQ

Related terms

See Data sources across the Premier League

Every player, team and match measured on the chances created rather than the scoreline.